Is steel iron ore a good career path?

Is steel/iron ore a good career path? A short guide. Is Steel/Iron Ore a Good Career Path? If you’re considering a career in steel/iron ore, you’re probably wondering if it’s a good career path. The answer is yes! The steel/iron ore industry is a vital part of the global economy, and it offers a wide range of job opportunities.

Whether you’re interested in engineering, management, or operations, there’s a job for you in this industry. Types of Jobs in Steel/Iron Ore There are many different types of jobs in the steel/iron ore industry. Some of the most common jobs include engineers, technicians, operators, and managers. Engineers are responsible for designing and developing new products and processes, while technicians and operators are responsible for operating and maintaining equipment.

Managers oversee the entire operation and ensure that everything runs smoothly. How Best to Start a Career in Steel/Iron Ore? If you’re interested in starting a career in steel/iron ore, there are a few things you can do to get started. First, consider getting a degree in engineering, management, or a related field.

This will give you the skills and knowledge you need to succeed in this industry. You can also look for internships or entry-level positions to gain experience and make connections in the industry. What Do Jobs in the US and UK Pay in Steel/Iron Ore? The pay for jobs in the steel/iron ore industry varies depending on the position and location.

In the US, the average salary for a steelworker is around $50,000 per year, while engineers and managers can earn significantly more. In the UK, the average salary for a steelworker is around £30,000 per year, while engineers and managers can earn significantly more.

What Are the Downsides of a Career in Steel/Iron Ore? Like any industry, there are some downsides to a career in steel/iron ore. One of the biggest downsides is the potential for workplace injuries. Working with heavy machinery and equipment can be dangerous, so it’s important to take safety precautions and follow proper procedures.

Another downside is the potential for layoffs during economic downturns. What Are the Fastest Growing Jobs in Steel/Iron Ore? The steel/iron ore industry is constantly evolving, and there are many fast-growing jobs in this field. Some of the fastest-growing jobs include automation engineers, data analysts, and sustainability specialists. A major reason why job markets are dysfunctional and inefficient is because of the lack of salary transparency in job postings. Knowing salary expectations on the candidate side and the salaries behind job postings would significantly cut down labor market and recruitment friction.

How many tonnes of iron ore does it take to make steel?

Steel. It takes around 1.6 tons of iron ore to produce one ton of steel.

How much iron is left in the world?

The total reserves of crude iron ore worldwide were estimated to be approximately 180 billion metric tons in 2022. The total iron content of that amount is estimated to be some 85 billion metric tons.

What are some interesting facts about iron ore?

Statistics and information on the worldwide supply of, demand for, and flow of the mineral commodity iron ore Iron ore is a mineral substance which, when heated in the presence of a reductant, will yield metallic iron (Fe). It almost always consists of iron oxides, the primary forms of which are magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) and hematite (Fe 2 O 3 ).

1. Iron ore is the source of primary iron for the world’s iron and steel industries.
2. It is therefore essential for the production of steel, which in turn is essential to maintain a strong industrial base.
3. Almost all (98%) iron ore is used in steelmaking.
4. Iron ore is mined in about 50 countries.
5. The seven largest of these producing countries account for about three-quarters of total world production.

Australia and Brazil together dominate the world’s iron ore exports, each having about one-third of total exports. Subscribe to receive an email notification when a new publication is added to this page. On the Questions tab of the subscriber preferences page, select “Iron Ore” and any other options in which you may be interested.

Does iron ore have a future?

Despite iron ore rebounding strongly in early 2023, after falling more than 50% in the second half of 2022, prices are expected to ease over the next 5 years on slower demand growth and more supply.

Is steel in high demand?

Worldsteel predicts recovery of global steel demand in 2023 by 2.3% — News — GMK Center In 2023, the world demand for steel will increase by 2.4% compared to 2022 – up to 1.822 billion tons. This was given in its short-term forecast of World Steel Association (WSA).

In 2024, according to the association’s expectations, global demand for steel will increase by 1.7% y/y – up to 1.854 billion tons. “In 2022, the pace of recovery after the shock caused by the pandemic was complicated by high inflation and interest rate increases, the invasion of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, and quarantine restrictions in China.

As a result, in the 4th quarter of 2022, the activity of steel-consuming sectors decreased. This, combined with the effect of inventory adjustments, led to a larger than expected reduction in steel demand,” said Ternium CEO and Worldsteel Economic Committee Chairman Maximo Vedoya,

• High inflation and interest rates in most countries will limit the recovery of steel demand in 2023, despite positive factors, in particular, the lifting of restrictions in China, the resilience of Europe in the face of the energy crisis and the resolution of logistics issues.
• In 2024, demand will grow thanks to regions outside of China, but will face a global slowdown due to the expected stagnation of the PRC economy.

Sustained inflation remains a downside risk to demand and will potentially keep key rates high. Global demand for steel in 2023-2024 Demand for steel in EU countries and the UK in 2023, according to WSA forecasts, will amount to 151.3 million tons, which is 0.4% below the level of 2022. In 2024, it will grow by 5.6% – up to 159.8 million tons. In countries USMCA (USA, Mexico, Canada) in 2023 demand is expected to grow by 1.6% y/y – up to 135 million tons, and in 2024 – by 2.3% y/y, up to 38.1 million tons.

• In Middle East countries – by 2.2% y/y in 2023, up to 52.4 million tons, and by 3.2% – in 2024, up to 54.1 million tons.
• General demand for steel in the Russian Federation, the CIS and Ukraine in the current year will fall by 3.5% – to 51.5 million tons.
• In 2024, a decrease of 4.3% y/y is expected – to 49.3 million tons.

At the same time, in 2022, the demand for steel in the Russian Federation decreased less than expected due to pipeline projects and housing construction. At the same time, production, which depends on imported parts, has significantly decreased. In 2023-2024, the rate of growth in the construction sector is expected to slow down, and in 2024, the reduction in demand for steel in the Russian Federation will accelerate.

In the coming years, the Russian economy will face serious problems due to Western sanctions and the outflow of labor. “The continuation of the hot phase of the war beyond expectations is delaying the expected recovery in Ukraine. The demand for steel in Ukraine is currently 40% of the pre-war level, and the restoration of the pre-war level will probably take a considerable time,” the association states.

As GMK Center reported earlier, the WSA had previously expected in 2023 at the level of 1% – to 1.814 billion tons. In 2022, according to the association’s forecasts, the indicator fell by 2.3% y/y – to 1.796 billion tons. : Worldsteel predicts recovery of global steel demand in 2023 by 2.3% — News — GMK Center

How much is 1 iron ore worth?

Iron Ore Spot Price (Any Origin) (I:IOSPAO) 113.45 USD/dmt for Jun 2023 View and export this data back to 1960.

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Iron Ore Spot Price (Any Origin) (I:IOSPAO)

What is the richest ore of iron?

Magnetite is the ‘richest’ iron ore, it contains a bit more iron than haematite. It is rather common and found in large deposits.

What are the 4 types of iron ore?

One can find four types of iron ores on earth. They are Haematite, Magnetite, Limonite and Siderite.

Where is 85% iron in Earth?

More than 90 percent of Earth ‘s mass is composed of iron, oxygen, silicon, and magnesium, elements that can form the crystalline minerals known as silicates, Nevertheless, in chemical and mineralogical composition, as in physical properties, Earth is far from homogeneous,

Apart from the superficial lateral differences near the surface (i.e., in the compositions of the continental and oceanic crusts), Earth’s principal differences vary with distance toward the centre. This is due to increasing temperatures and pressures and to the original segregation of materials, soon after Earth accreted from the solar nebula about 4.56 billion years ago, into a metal-rich core, a silicate -rich mantle, and the more highly refined crustal rocks.

Earth is geochemically differentiated to a great extent ( see below Planetary differentiation ). Crustal rocks contain several times as much of the rock-forming element aluminum as does the rest of the solid Earth and many dozens of times as much uranium,

1. On the other hand, the crust, which accounts for a mere 0.4 percent of Earth’s mass, contains less than 0.1 percent of its iron,
2. Between 85 and 90 percent of Earth’s iron is concentrated in the core.
3. The increasing pressure with depth causes phase changes in crustal rocks at depths between 5 and 50 km (3 and 30 miles), which marks the top of the upper mantle, as mentioned above.

This transition area is called the Mohorovic̆ić discontinuity, or Moho, Most basaltic magmas are generated in the upper mantle at depths of hundreds of kilometres. The upper mantle, which is rich in the olivine, pyroxene, and silicate perovskite minerals, shows significant lateral differences in composition.

A large fraction of Earth’s interior, from a depth of about 650 km (400 miles) down to 2,900 km (1,800 miles), consists of the lower mantle, which is composed chiefly of magnesium- and iron-bearing silicates, including the high-pressure equivalents of olivine and pyroxene, The mantle is not static but rather churns slowly in convective motions, with hotter material rising up and cooler material sinking; through this process, Earth gradually loses its internal heat,

In addition to being the driving force of horizontal plate motion, mantle convection is manifested in the occurrence of temporary superplumes—huge, rising jets of hot, partially molten rock—which may originate from a deep layer near the core-mantle interface.

• Much larger than ordinary thermal plumes, such as that associated with the Hawaiian island chain in the central Pacific ( see volcano: Intraplate volcanism ), superplumes may have had profound effects on Earth’s geologic history and even on its climate,
• One outburst of global volcanism about 66 million years ago, which created the vast flood basalt deposits known as the Deccan Traps on the Indian subcontinent ( see plateau ), may have been associated with a superplume, though this model is far from universally accepted.

With a radius of almost 3,500 km (2,200 miles), Earth’s core is about the size of the entire planet Mars, About one-third of Earth’s mass is contained in the core, most of which is liquid iron alloyed with nickel and some lighter, cosmically abundant components (e.g., sulfur, oxygen, and, controversially, even hydrogen ).

1. Its liquid nature is revealed by the failure of shear-type seismic waves to penetrate the core.
2. A small, central part of the core, however, below a depth of about 5,100 km (3,200 miles), is solid iron.
3. This inner core is itself divided into two layers known only by the polarity differences of the iron crystals found within them.

The polarity of the iron crystals of the innermost layer is oriented in an east-west direction, whereas that of the outermost layer is oriented north-south. Temperatures in the core are extremely hot, ranging from 4,000–5,000 K (roughly 6,700–8,500 °F; 3,700–4,700 °C) at the outer part of the core to 5,000–7,000 K (8,500–12,100 °F; 4,700–6,700 °C) in the centre, comparable to the surface of the Sun,

Large uncertainties in temperature arise from questions as to which compounds form alloys with iron in the core, and more recent data favour the lower end of the temperature estimates for the inner core. The core’s reservoir of heat may contribute as much as one-fifth of all the internal heat that ultimately flows to the surface of Earth.

The basic structure of Earth—crust, mantle, and core—appears to be replicated on the other terrestrial planets, though with substantial variations in the relative size of each region.

Will we ever run out of steel?

Is Metal a Non-Renewable Resource? – Metal ores are regarded as non-renewable resources as they can take thousands, if not millions of years to replenish depending on type. This does not, however, mean that we are at risk of depleting the Earth’s metal resources.

1. Metal exists in vast quantities in the Earth’s crust, and many people underestimate the sheer size and volume of our planet.
2. Humans have been mining for an estimated 40,000 years and yet we have only really scratched the surface.
3. In fact, the deepest mine ever created by humans is approximately 2.4 miles deep.

The Earth’s crust is approximately 21 miles deep, and even that is less than 1% of the planet’s overall volume. It is safe to assume then that we will never exhaust the Earth’s metal resources in their entirety.

What country owns the most iron?

2. Brazil – 400 million tonnes – Brazil produced an estimated 400 million tonnes of iron ore in 2020 – slightly less than in 2019 but still roughly 17% of the global total. The Carajás Mine in Brazil’s northern state of Pará is one of the largest iron ore mines globally, and is operated by Rio de Janeiro-based company Vale. Reclaimer at work at the Carajás Mining Complex in Brazil (Credit: Salviano Machado/Vale)

Who are the biggest users of iron ore?

China is the largest consumer of iron ore, used to feed its steel industry.

How old is iron ore?

Nearly all the earth’s iron comes from ore deposits in rocks formed more than 1.8 billion years ago. These began forming when the first organisms capable of photosynthesis began releasing oxygen into the world’s oceans, which combined with dissolved iron to produce haematite or magnetite.

How rare is iron ore?

Back to Rocks and Minerals Articles Kathy Feick The term “iron ore” is one which is used to describe those rocks sufficiently rich in iron to be used economically. Although elemental iron is ranked fourth in abundance in the Earths crust, metallic iron is virtually unknown on the surface of the Earth except as iron-nickel alloys from meteorites and very rare forms of deep mantle xenoliths.

Is iron ore in demand?

Goldman revised this year’s iron ore demand forecast to ‘flat’ due to an estimated volume cut of 30 metric tonnes, and said it saw 2023 as the first full year of global surplus in iron ore since 2018, which would then be followed by an even larger surplus in 2024.

Should I invest in iron ore?

Why invest in them? – Iron ore is part of the bedrock of the Australian economy, making up roughly 20% of the nation’s total global exports.1 And, given iron ore’s importance for steel production, investors can be confident that demand for the mineral will remain persistent.

Why is iron ore so cheap?

So Cheap Yet So Valuable A steel sculpture surrounded by skyscrapers. Credit: MH Merhi mmirhi (https://unsplash.com/photos/Y0K6JoI1mfo ), via Wikimedia Commons Alchemists in the Middle Ages were fixated on turning lead into gold. Both are soft, heavy metals. If they could make the dull one into the shiny one, they’d be rich.

Right? Maybe not. Thousands of years before them, another metal, iron, was eight times more valuable than gold. It could only be found in its pure metal form in iron meteorites. Assyrians and Egyptians made prized iron jewelry, which we find in ancient tombs. Then some alchemist of their time figured out how to smelt iron from common iron ore, like hematite and magnetite.

When supply boomed, the price plummeted. Iron eventually became the least expensive metal on Earth. That’s because iron, as found in ores, is our most plentiful element by mass. Iron makes up most of Earth’s core, which produces Earth’s magnetic field, protecting us from cosmic rays and solar wind.

Iron is the main ingredient in steel, an alloy of iron and carbon. We make a billion tons a year, and use it in everything, especially large buildings—which might be impossible without steel. Iron is also abundant in the human body; it carries oxygen in the blood and gives blood its signature coloralong with many other red things on Earth, from rocks and soil to farmers’ barns, painted with iron oxide pigments.

Iron is common and cheap and incredibly useful, so in some ways, that still makes it a lot more valuable than gold.

Which country uses most steel?

China remains the global leader in crude steel production, with December 2022 reaching 77.9 million metric tons, down roughly 10 percent from its production in December the year before. India, Japan, the United States, and Russia follow distantly.

Who buys the most steel in the world?

In 2021, the United States was the leading steel importer at 29.7 million metric tons. China ranked second with 27.8 million metric tons, having held first place the year before in 2020.

What industry buys the most steel?

2. A healthy economy needs a healthy steel industry providing employment and driving growth. – Steel is everywhere in our lives for a reason. Steel is the great collaborator, working together with all other materials to advance growth and development. Steel is the foundation of the last 100 years of progress. Steel will be equally fundamental to meeting the challenges of the next 100. Key facts:

Average world steel use per capita has steadily increased from 150kg in 2001 to around 230kg in 2020, making the world more prosperous. Steel is used in every important industry; energy, construction, automotive and transportation, infrastructure, packaging and machinery. By 2050, steel use is projected to increase by around 20% compared to present levels in order to meet the needs of our growing population. Skyscrapers are made possible by steel. The housing and construction sector is the largest consumer of steel today, using more than 50% of steel produced.

What is the future of iron and steel industry?

Vikram Mehta, Partner EYG Member firm & India Region Leader – Mining & Metals and Ashish Joshi – Director EYG Member firm In India’s march to becoming an economic powerhouse by 2047, it is a tightrope walk for the government and industry as they balance the increasing need for coal, iron ore and steel –all required for growth targets – with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and stiff climate targets.

1. The steel, coal, and iron ore industries are foundational pillars of global and Indian economic growth.
2. The inter-connections between these industries are complex and dynamic, as are the driving forces of supply and demand that determine their performance.
3. The global steel market reached a value of US$874.6b in FY22.

The market is predicted to reach a value of US$1,052.25b (Source-IMARC) by 2027, with a CAGR of 3.02% from 2022 to 2027. The government’s target is to achieve 300 MT crude steel capacity by 2030-31. Iron ore is the source of primary iron for the world’s steel industry with almost all (98%) iron ore is used in steelmaking.

1. India has one of the largest (Over 30 billion Tons) reserves of iron ore but has deposits which are of lower grade.
2. India ranks fourth globally in iron ore production.
3. Coal is the world’s most affordable energy fuel and extensively used for electricity generation.
4. The country’s power demand is expected to double in the coming decade.

At present, more than half of the country’s installed power generation capacity is coal-based. By 2030, the share will be similar at about 54%, according to a recent EY survey on emerging trends and challenges in coal, iron ore and steel. Moreover, in the energy mix, coal scores in reliability over the seasonal and diurnal cycle of renewable energy.

• Coking coal reserves in India stands at 34.5 billion tons however it is not of adequate quality to form good coking coal on account of high impurities.
• India largely fulfils its coking coal requirements through imports from Australia.
• While clean energy capacity in the country is growing exponentially, India will continue to require coal, iron ore and steel for economic development.

Even developed economies have realised since last year that coal, often touted as ‘pollutant’ in the fight to reduce emissions, cannot be wished away. Nor can mining of metals such as iron ore or making steel. Digitisation and adoption of technology According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), technological advances in mining have the potential to deliver more than $425b to the industry.

There are several tangible benefits that may be realized by increasing adoption of emerging technologies in mining & steel making. India’s digitization roadmap, however, must cover the coal, iron and steel sectors end-to- end. In addition to technologies that improve downstream processes, a more comprehensive set of digital measures is needed.

Innovation in automation, digitisation and electrification can have a fundamental impact. According to the same EY report mentioned earlier, autonomous vehicles, remote operating centers, automated drilling and boring systems, GIS/GPS and drones are among the new technologies that can reshape the mining sector itself.

Sensors, an Internet of Things environment, big data and artificial intelligence will enable decision-makers to monitor as well as gather data in real-time. In coal and iron ore mining, big data can improve the end-to-end logistics supply chain, predictive maintenance systems and overall safety levels.

ML algorithms can analyse images taken by drones to determine the mineralogy of mining areas. Integrated solutions will include steel plant operations such as procurement plan based on need and the properties of the feed material, inventory norming, and optimised blending in, say, sinter plants.

Broader Clean Technology Roadmap Sustainable supply of energy and raw materials is a compelling enough reason to find newer ways to attract investments and funnel expertise into R&D as well as proven sectors such as Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs). Given that more than 90% of coal mined in India is from opencast mines, improved coal washing and beneficiation (to remove impurities before combustion) can lead to higher quality supplies from mechanical opencast mines.

Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) is another technology in use. It captures CO2 emission from fossil fuel-based power plants and stores it underground or uses it elsewhere. Top gas recycling can recycle up to 90% of the exhaust gas from blast furnaces and reuse it for combustion.

This, along with CCUS, offers a solution to significantly reduce emissions in iron ore and steel production. Technologies such as coal gasification, liquefaction and hydrogen production convert coal into gaseous or liquid forms, which can be used as feedstock for various chemical and industrial processes.

Till recently, funding was mostly directed towards renewable energy sources. But there is a shift in mindset as it is becoming evident that phasing out coal completely in the near future is not possible. In June 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an INR 20,000 crore investment by 2030 in coal gasification projects to utilize 100 MT of coal.

• Beneficiation also leads to higher iron content while reducing silica and alumina in the feed material.
• This can result in more consumption of lower-grade ore and fines for steelmaking as well as lower temperatures and coating built-up in kilns.
• If the dependence on high grade ore is continued, the resources would get depleted in another 15 to 20 years considering expected growth in steel production.

Among clean technologies, it is early days for green hydrogen, but it holds a lot of promise in decarbonisation. Several large companies have plans in this direction, according to the same EY report. Policy interventions The Government of India has also helped in the development of the metals and mining sector in India by: a) Launching key policy initiatives b) Regulatory interventions in the auction process and Levy of duties and land availability The Steel plants in India are in the inlands, often in remote areas with severe logistics challenges.

• Digital solutions can optimize the logistics for inbound and outbound materials flows and ensure the least fuel burned per ton of material moved.
• Anticipating the needs of the future, the government has already started working on the infrastructural readiness of mega projects in logistics, like Sagarmala, Bharatmala and Dedicated Freight Corridor,

With the budget announcement of highest capital outlay for Indian Railways of INR 2.4 Lakh Crores and 100 transport infrastructure projects identified for end- to-end connectivity for ports, coal, steel and other sectors, these logistical challenges can be gradually mitigated.

• Conclusion While large-scale operations recognize this and are already applying digital and other technologies, for best results, digital transformation solutions should be tailored to smaller operators’ capabilities.
• Focus on clean technologies can address the challenge of affordability, reliability and sustainability in the core sectors of coal, iron and steel.

India has much at stake as it balances economic and climate imperatives. Therefore, close collaboration between policymakers and industry will be vital for sustainable outcomes. (Authored by Vikram Mehta, Partner EYG Member firm & India Region Leader – Mining & Metals and Ashish Joshi – Director EYG Member firm)

Published On Jun 5, 2023 at 03:54 PM IST

Is iron ore in demand?

Goldman revised this year’s iron ore demand forecast to ‘flat’ due to an estimated volume cut of 30 metric tonnes, and said it saw 2023 as the first full year of global surplus in iron ore since 2018, which would then be followed by an even larger surplus in 2024.

What is the future outlook for mining iron?

Global Iron Ore Mining Outlook BMI / / / Mon 05 Sep, 2022 Key View

• Global iron ore production growth will accelerate over 2022-2026 after stagnating during the previous five years.
• Continued, albeit slower, growth in Australia, faster growth in Brazil and stabilisation in Mainland China’s ore output will be the main drivers of growth.
• China will invest heavily in overseas mines in order to improve security of iron ore import supply. Guinea will be an important beneficiary of this trend via the Simandou project.

Global iron ore production growth will accelerate in the coming years, bringing an end to the stagnation that has persisted since iron ore prices hit a decade-low average of USD55.0/tonne in 2015. We forecast global mine output growth to average 2.7% over 2022-2026 compared to -1.3% over the previous five years.

This would lift annual production by 361.7mn tonnes in 2026 compared to 2022 levels, roughly the equivalent of Russia, India, and South Africa’s combined 2022 output. Supply growth will be primarily driven by Brazil and Australia. Brazilian miner Vale has aggressive expansion plans, while miners in Australia including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue will reinvest currently buoyant profits into additional production.

In Mainland China, iron ore production will rise once again in the next three to four years as the country works to increase its self-sufficiency and reduce Australian imports, having declined significantly over recent years. Nonetheless, as China’s miners operate at the higher end of the iron ore cost curve and domestic ore grades will continue to decline, we expect Chinese firms to prioritise investment in overseas iron ore mines, such as the enormous SImandou deposit in Guinea.

Looking beyond 2025, we expect that lower prices will push production into stagnation as steel demand weakens in China. We forecast annual production growth to average a measly 0.04% over 2026-2031, with most producers seeing minimal increases and limited declines in some major suppliers such as Australia.

Australia We expect iron ore production in Australia to grow at an annual average of just 0.4% over 2022-2026. The significant slowdown compared to the previous five years comes from the launch of the limited new sources of supply from new projects available.

• This would lift annual output by just 19.3mn tonnes compared in 2026 compared to 2022 levels.
• We believe Australia’s seating at the lowest-end of the global iron ore cost curve will provide a healthy buffer against falling prices in the coming years despite the slowdown.
• On average, the cost of producing iron ore in Australia is USD30/tonne, compared with USD40-50/tonne in West Africa and USD90/tonne in China.

Production growth will stagnate over the longer term and we forecast production to peak around mid-decade just shy of 1bn tonnes. This production slowdown will be due to mothballing of mines by junior miners and a pullback in capital expenditure by larger firms as iron ore prices decline.

• Majors continue to decrease costs and increase production in the longer term focusing on higher quality ores as much as possible to improve margins and supply ‘green’ steel production.
• Brazil Brazil’s iron ore production growth will rebound in the coming years following contraction and stagnation over 2018-2020.

Low operating costs, a solid project pipeline and Brazil’s high-quality iron ore increasingly favoured by Chinese steel producers will all contribute to higher output. We forecast Brazil’s iron ore production to increase at annual average rate of 2.6% from 2022-2026 from 409.6mnt this year to 473.5mnt in 2026.

Production growth will slow over the longer term and we forecast average annual growth of 1.2% over 2026-2031, which would take annual output to 502mnt by 2031. The Brumadinho dam collapse has sparked a flurry of investigations into Vale’s operations, leading to executive removals, idling operations, and fines on the horizon.

The disaster triggered an initiative by Vale to decommission its remaining upstream tailings dams over the next three years, effectively cutting off 40mnt of iron ore per annum. Since the announcement, multiple operations have been idled, causing further supply disruptions.

For example, the Brucutu mine (30mtpa) was idled for six weeks, allowed to reopen, then idled again days later following another court ruling, then finally reopened in June. We expect to see continued regulatory scrutiny over Vale and the iron ore sector as the government grapples with the deadliest environmental disaster in the nation’s history.

In December 2020, The Samarco joint venture (owned by BHP and Vale) restarted. Production is initially aimed at 26% of its 30.5mnt capacity with a 60% nameplate utilisation target set for 2026. This announcement is in line with the previous timetable set by Vale in late 2019.

• BHP and Vale are currently at an impasse negotiating a debt restructuring with creditors as they continue to insist on a significant reduction in what they owe.
• Mainland China China’s iron ore production will rise once again in the next three- to four years as the market works to increase its self sufficiency and reduce Australian imports, having declined significantly over recent years.

We forecast production to reach a peak of 1.07bnt in 2025 and declining again after 2026. Growth in output will be prevented by weak iron ore prices and tightening environmental regulations China’s iron ore sector will become increasingly consolidated due to high costs of mining low grade ore, and environmental regulations in China that will eventually see the phasing out of iron ore used in the production of steel as electric arc furnaces and decarbonised steel that use recycled feedstock take precedence.

• According to Bloomberg, around 70% of Chinese iron ore output is uneconomical at prices below USD96/tonne.
• In particular, miners operating in provinces such as Hebei, Fujian, Guangdong and Xinjiang will take the strain of lower prices due to their sitting at the highest end of the iron ore cost curve.

India India’s iron ore output growth will be supported by the removal of export taxes in the Union Budget for low-grade ores and the country’s Mines & Minerals (Development & Regulation) (MMDR) Act, which will streamline licensing and reopen closed mines.

• Although the MMDR Act will support ore output growth, the royalties included in the Act will limit the sector’s overall growth potential.
• As part of India’s 2016 Union Budget, export duties for iron ore lumps and fines below 58% Fe content were reduced to nil from 30.0% and 10.0% respectively.
• This reduction was aimed at boosting shipments from the western state of Goa where the Supreme Court lifted an earlier iron ore mining ban.

However, the decision by India’s top court to cancel all iron ore permits in Goa in February 2018 will mean that production from that state is likely to head lower rather than increase. As a result, we forecast India’s iron ore output to grow from 179.1mnt in 2022 to 195.5mnt in 2031, with annual output growth averaging 0.9% over the period.

This commentary is published by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, and is not a comment on Fitch Ratings Credit Ratings. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from BMI and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with BMI.

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: Global Iron Ore Mining Outlook